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Abstract:

The aim of the present work is to address the description of hyperinflation regimens in economy. The spirals of hyperinflation developed in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua are revisited. This new analysis of data indicates that the episodes occurred in Brazil and Nicaragua can be understood within the frame of the model available in the literature, which is based on a nonlinear feedback (NLF) characterized by an exponent β>0. In the NLF model the accumulated consumer price index carries a finite time singularity of the type 1/(tc−t)(1−β)/β determining a critical time tc at which the economy would crash. It is shown that in the case of Brazil the entire episode cannot be described with a unique set of parameters because the time series was strongly affected by a change of policy. This fact gives support to the “so called” Lucas critique, who stated that model's parameters usually change once policy changes. On the other hand, such a model is not able to provide any tc in the case of the weaker hyperinflation occurred in Israel. It is shown that in this case the fit of data yields β→0. This limit leads to the linear feedback formulation which does not predict any tc. An extension for the NLF model is suggested. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited
Autor:Szybisz, M.A.; Szybisz, L.
Filiación:Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Av. Córdoba 2122, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Laboratorio TANDAR, Departamento de Física, Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica, Av. del Libertador 8250, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Av. Rivadavia 1917, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:Critical exponents; Economics, econophysics; Interdisciplinary applications of physics; Singularity theory; Social and economic systems; Accidents; Nonlinear feedback; Analysis of data; Consumer price index; Critical exponent; Econophysicss; Finite time singularity; Linear feedback; Singularity theory; Social and economic systems; Economics
Año:2017
Volumen:465
Página de inicio:1
Página de fin:12
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.052
ISSN:03784371
CODEN:PHYAD
Registro:http://digital.bl.fcen.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_03784371_v465_n_p1_Szybisz

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Szybisz, M.A. & Szybisz, L. (2017) . Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited, 465, 1-12.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.052
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Szybisz, M.A., Szybisz, L. "Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited" 465 (2017) : 1-12.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.052
---------- MLA ----------
Szybisz, M.A., Szybisz, L. "Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited" , vol. 465, 2017, pp. 1-12.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.052
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Szybisz, M.A., Szybisz, L. Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited. 2017;465:1-12.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.052