El editor solo permite decargar el artículo en su versión post-print desde el repositorio. Por favor, si usted posee dicha versión, enviela a
Consulte el artículo en la página del editor
Consulte la política de Acceso Abierto del editor


Vaccination is widely recognized as the most effective way of immunization against many infectious diseases. However, unfounded claims about supposed side effects of some vaccines have contributed to spread concern and fear among people, thus inducing vaccination refusal. MMR (Measles, Mumps and Rubella) vaccine coverage has undergone an important decrease in a large part of Europe and US as a consequence of erroneously alleged side effects, leading to recent measles outbreaks. There is evidence that clusterization of unvaccinated individuals may lead to epidemics way larger that the ones that might appear in the case that unvaccinated agents are distributed at random in the population. In this work we explore the emergence of those clusters as a consequence of the social interaction driven mainly by homophily, where vaccination behaviour is part of a process of cultural dissemination in the spirit of Axelrod's model. The ingredients of this calculation encompass: (i) interacting agents which are to decide if they vaccinate or not their children, (ii) their interaction with a small subset of stubborn agents who believe that the MMR vaccine is not safe and (iii) government sponsored propaganda trying to convince people of the benefits of vaccination. We find that these clusters, which emerge as a dynamical outcome of the model, are the responsible of the increasing probability of the occurrence of measles outbreaks, even in scenarios where the WHO (World Health Organization) recommendation of 95% vaccine coverage is fulfilled. However, we also illustrate that the mitigating effect of a public health campaign, could effectively reduce the impact and size of outbreaks. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.


Documento: Artículo
Título:Vaccination and public trust: A model for the dissemination of vaccination behaviour with external intervention
Autor:Dorso, C.O.; Medus, A.; Balenzuela, P.
Filiación:Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Av. Cantilo s/n, Pabellón 1, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires (IFIBA), CONICET, Av. Cantilo s/n, Pabellón 1, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Palabras clave:Adaptive dynamics; Agent-based model; Complex emergent behaviour; Epidemics; Sociophysics; Autonomous agents; Computational methods; Epidemiology; Vaccines; Adaptive dynamics; Agent-based model; Emergent behaviours; Epidemics; Sociophysics; Diseases
Página de inicio:433
Página de fin:443


  • Plotkin, S.L., Plotkin, S.A., 1 - A short history of vaccination (2013) Vaccines (Sixth Edition), pp. 1-13. , Plotkin S.A. Orenstein W.A. Offit P.A. sixth ed. W.B. Saunders London
  • Andre, F., Booy, R., Bock, H., Clemens, J., Datta, S., John, T., Lee, B., Schmitt, H., Vaccination greatly reduces disease, disability, death and inequity worldwide (2008) Bull. World Health Organ., 86 (2), pp. 140-146
  • Maurice, J., Davey, S., (2009) State of the World's Vaccines and Immunization, , World Health Organization
  • Hoffman, J., State of the World's Vaccines and Immunization (2013), Public Health Wales; Gastañaduy, P., Redd, S., Fiebelkorn, A., Rota, J., Rota, P., Bellini, W., Measles—United States, January 1–May 23, 2014, in: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), vol. 63, no. 22, 2014, pp. 496–499; Wakefield, A., Murch, S., Anthony, A., Linnell, J., Casson, D., Malik, M., Berelowitz, M., Walker-Smith, J., RETRACTED: Ileal-lymphoid-nodular hyperplasia, non-specific colitis, and pervasive developmental disorder in children (1998) The Lancet, 351 (9103), pp. 637-641
  • Taylor, B., Miller, E., Farrington, C., Petropoulos, M.-C., Favot-Mayaud, I., Li, J., Waight, P.A., Autism and measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine: no epidemiological evidence for a causal association (1999) The Lancet, 353 (9169), pp. 2026-2029
  • Burgess, D.C., Burgess, M.A., Leask, J., The MMR vaccination and autism controversy in United Kingdom 19982005: Inevitable community outrage or a failure of risk communication? (2006) Vaccine, 24 (18), pp. 3921-3928
  • Brown, K.F., Long, S.J., Ramsay, M., Hudson, M.J., Green, J., Vincent, C.A., Kroll, J.S., Sevdalis, N., UK parents decision-making about measles mumps rubella (MMR) vaccine 10 years after the MMR-autism controversy: A qualitative analysis (2012) Vaccine, 30 (10), pp. 1855-1864
  • Bauch, C.T., Imitation dynamics predict vaccinating behaviour (2005) Proc. R. Soc. Lond [Biol.], 272 (1573), pp. 1669-1675
  • dOnofrio, A., Manfredi, P., Poletti, P., The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: An imitation-game approach (2011) J. Theoret. Biol., 273 (1), pp. 63-71
  • Salathé, M., Bonhoeffer, S., The effect of opinion clustering on disease outbreaks (2008) J. R. Soc. Interface, 5 (29), pp. 1505-1508
  • Ndeffo Mbah, M.L., Liu, J., Bauch, C.T., Tekel, Y.I., Medlock, J., Meyers, L.A., Galvani, A.P., The impact of imitation on vaccination behavior in social contact networks (2012) PLoS Comput. Biol., 8 (4), pp. 1-10
  • Barclay, V.C., Smieszek, T., He, J., Cao, G., Rainey, J.J., Gao, H., Uzicanin, A., Salathé, M., Positive network assortativity of influenza vaccination at a high school: Implications for outbreak risk and herd immunity (2014) PLoS One, 9 (2), pp. 1-11
  • Xia, S., Liu, J., A computational approach to characterizing the impact of social influence on individuals vaccination decision making (2013) PLoS One, 8 (4), pp. 1-11
  • Bond, R.M., Fariss, C.J., Jones, J.J., Kramer, A.D.I., Marlow, C., Settle, J.E., Fowler, J.H., A 61-million-person experiment in social influence and political mobilization (2012) Nature, 489 (7415), pp. 295-298
  • Coviello, L., Sohn, Y., Kramer, A.D.I., Marlow, C., Franceschetti, M., Christakis, N.A., Fowler, J.H., Detecting emotional contagion in massive social networks (2014) PLoS One, 9 (3), pp. 1-6
  • Centola, D., An experimental study of homophily in the adoption of health behavior (2011) Science, 334 (6060), pp. 1269-1272
  • Lazarsfeld, P.F., Merton, R.K., Friendship as a social process: A substantive and methodological analysis (1954) Freedom and Control in Modern Society, pp. 18-66. , Berger M. Abel T. Page C. Van Nostrand New York
  • McPherson, M., Lovin, L.S., Cook, J.M., Birds of a feather: Homophily in social networks (2001) Ann. Rev. Sociol., 27 (1), pp. 415-444
  • Axelrod, R., The dissemination of culture a model with local convergence and global polarization (1997) J. Conflict Resolut., 41 (2), pp. 203-226
  • Organization, W.H., (2014) World Health Statistics 2014, , WHO
  • dOnofrio, A., Manfredi, P., Poletti, P., The interplay of public intervention and private choices in determining the outcome of vaccination programmes (2012) PLoS One, 7 (10), pp. 1-10
  • Centola, D., González-Avella, J.C., Eguluz, V.M., San Miguel, M., Homophily, cultural drift, and the co-evolution of cultural groups (2007) J. Conflict Resolut., 51 (6), pp. 905-929
  • Organization, W.H., (2012) Global Measles and Rubella - Strategic Plan, , WHO
  • Wood, W., Attitude change: Persuasion and social influence (2000) Ann. Rev. Psychol., 51 (1), pp. 539-570
  • Aral, S., Muchnik, L., Sundararajan, A., Distinguishing influence-based contagion from homophily-driven diffusion in dynamic networks (2009) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106 (51), pp. 21544-21549
  • Christakis, N.A., Fowler, J.H., Social contagion theory: examining dynamic social networks and human behavior (2013) Stat. Med., 32 (4), pp. 556-577
  • Watts, D.J., Strogatz, S.H., Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks (1998) Nature, 393 (6684), pp. 409-410
  • Salathé, M., Kazandjieva, M., Lee, J.W., Levis, P., Feldman, M.W., Jones, J.H., A high-resolution human contact network for infectious disease transmission (2010) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 107 (51), pp. 22020-22025
  • Newman, M.E., Watts, D.J., Scaling and percolation in the small-world network model (1999) Phys. Rev. E, 60 (6), pp. 7332-7342
  • González-Avella, J.C., Cosenza, M.G., Tucci, K., Nonequilibrium transition induced by mass media in a model for social influence (2005) Phys. Rev. E, 72, p. 065102
  • González-Avella, J.C., Eguíluz, V.M., Cosenza, M.G., Klemm, K., Herrera, J.L., San Miguel, M., Local versus global interactions in nonequilibrium transitions: A model of social dynamics (2006) Phys. Rev. E, 73, p. 046119
  • Pinto, S., Balenzuela, P., Dorso, C.O., Setting the agenda: Different strategies of a Mass Media in a model of cultural dissemination (2016) Physica A, 458, pp. 378-390
  • Organization, W.H., (2014) World Health Organization and Others, Measles Fact Sheet No286, , WHO
  • Lloyd, A.L., Realistic distributions of infectious periods in epidemic models: Changing patterns of persistence and dynamics (2001) Theor. Popul. Biol., 60 (1), pp. 59-71
  • Fu, F., Rosenbloom, D.I., Wang, L., Nowak, M.A., Imitation dynamics of vaccination behaviour on social networks (2010) Proc. R. Soc. Lond. [Biol.], 278 (1702), pp. 42-49
  • Bauch, C.T., Bhattacharyya, S., Evolutionary game theory and social learning can determine how vaccine scares unfold (2012) PLoS Comput. Biol., 8 (4), pp. 1-12
  • Salathé, M., Khandelwal, S., Assessing vaccination sentiments with online social media: Implications for infectious disease dynamics and control (2011) PLoS Comput. Biol., 7 (10), pp. 1-7


---------- APA ----------
Dorso, C.O., Medus, A. & Balenzuela, P. (2017) . Vaccination and public trust: A model for the dissemination of vaccination behaviour with external intervention, 482, 433-443.
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Dorso, C.O., Medus, A., Balenzuela, P. "Vaccination and public trust: A model for the dissemination of vaccination behaviour with external intervention" 482 (2017) : 433-443.
---------- MLA ----------
Dorso, C.O., Medus, A., Balenzuela, P. "Vaccination and public trust: A model for the dissemination of vaccination behaviour with external intervention" , vol. 482, 2017, pp. 433-443.
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Dorso, C.O., Medus, A., Balenzuela, P. Vaccination and public trust: A model for the dissemination of vaccination behaviour with external intervention. 2017;482:433-443.