Artículo

El editor solo permite decargar el artículo en su versión post-print desde el repositorio. Por favor, si usted posee dicha versión, enviela a
Consulte el artículo en la página del editor
Consulte la política de Acceso Abierto del editor

Abstract:

An ensemble of nine experiments with the same interannually varying sea surface temperature (SST), as boundary forcing, and different initial conditions is used to investigate the role of tropical oceans in modulating precipitation variability in the region of La Plata Basin (LPB). The results from the ensemble are compared with a twentieth-century experiment performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, sharing the same atmospheric component. A rotated empirical orthogonal functions analysis of South America precipitation shows that the dominant mode of variability in spring is realistically captured in both experiments. Its principal component (RPC1) correlated with global SST and atmospheric fields identifies the pattern related to El Niño Southern Oscillation and its large-scale teleconnections. Overall the pattern is well simulated in the tropical southern Pacific Ocean, mainly in the ensemble, but it is absent or too weak in other oceanic areas. The coupled model experiment shows a more realistic correlation in the subtropical South Atlantic where air-sea interactions contribute to the relationship between LPB precipitation and SST. The correspondence between model and data is much improved when the composite analysis of SST and atmospheric fields is done over the ensemble members having an RPC1 in agreement with the observations: the improvement relies on avoiding climate noise by averaging only over members that are statistically similar. Furthermore, the result suggests the presence of a high level of uncertainty due to internal atmospheric variability. The analysis of some individual years selected from the model and data RPC1 comparison reveals interesting differences among rainy springs in LPB. For example, 1982, which corresponds to a strong El Niño year, represents a clean case with a distinct wave train propagating from the central Pacific and merging with another one from the eastern tropical south Indian Ocean. The year 2003 is an example of a rainy spring in LPB not directly driven by remote SST forcing. In this case the internal variability has a dominant role, as the model is not able to reproduce the correct local precipitation pattern. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: Role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments
Autor:Cherchi, A.; Carril, A.F.; Menéndez, C.G.; Zamboni, L.
Filiación:Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Viale Aldo Moro 44, 40127 Bologna, Italy
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y de la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO), FCEN, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
UMI IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, United States
Idioma: Inglés
Palabras clave:air-sea interaction; atmosphere-ocean coupling; atmospheric forcing; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; general circulation model; precipitation (climatology); sea surface temperature; spring (season); teleconnection; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (South); La Plata Basin
Año:2014
Volumen:42
Número:1-2
Página de inicio:219
Página de fin:236
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1768-y
Título revista:Climate Dynamics
Título revista abreviado:Clim. Dyn.
ISSN:09307575
Registro:http://digital.bl.fcen.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v42_n1-2_p219_Cherchi

Referencias:

  • Aceituno, P., On the functioning of the Southern Oscillation in the South American sector. Part I: surface climate (1988) Mon Wea Rev, 116, pp. 505-524
  • Barreiro, M., Influence of ENSO and the South Atlantic Ocean on climate predictability over southeastern South America (2010) Clim Dyn, 35, pp. 1493-1508. , doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0666-9
  • Boulanger, J.P., Leloup, J., Penalba, O., Rusticucci, M., Lafon, F., Vargas, W., Observed precipitation in the Parana-Plata hydrological basin: long-term trends, extreme conditions and ENSO teleconnections (2005) Clim Dyn, 24, pp. 393-413
  • Byerle, L.A., Paegle, J., Description of the seasonal cycle of low-level flows flanking the Andes and their interannual variability (2002) Meteorologica, 27, pp. 71-88
  • Cai, W., van Rensch, P., Cowan, T., Hendon, H.H., Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall (2011) J Clim, 24, pp. 3910-3923
  • Carril, A.F., Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America (2012) Clim Dyn, 39, pp. 2747-2768
  • Cazes-Boezio, G., Robertson, A.W., Mechoso, C.R., Seasonal dependence of ENSO teleconnections over South America and relationships with precipitation in Uruguay (2003) J Clim, 16, pp. 1159-1176
  • Chan, S.C., Behera, S.K., Yamagata, T., Indian Ocean dipole influence on south American rainfall (2008) Geophys Res Lett, 35, pp. L14S12. , doi:10.1029/2008GL034204
  • Cherchi, A., Masina, S., Navarra, A., Impact of extreme CO2 levels on tropical climate: a CGCM study (2008) Clim Dyn, 31, pp. 743-758
  • Cherchi, A., Masina, S., Navarra, A., Tropical Pacific-North Pacific teleconnection in a coupled GCM: remote and local processes (2012) Int J Climatol, 32, pp. 1640-1653
  • Deser, C., Alexander, M.A., Xie, S.P., Phillips, A.S., Sea surface temperature variability: patterns and mechanisms (2010) Ann Rev Mar Sci, 2, pp. 115-143
  • Grimm, A., The El Niño impact on the summer monsoon in Brazil: regional processes versus remote influences (2003) J Clim, 16, pp. 263-280
  • Grimm, A., Barros, V.R., Doyle, M.E., Climate variability in southern South America associated with El Niño and La Niña events (2000) J Clim, 13, pp. 35-58
  • Grimm, A.M., Ferraz, S.E.T., Gomes, J., Precipitation anomalies in southern Brazil associated with El Niño and La Niña events (1998) J Clim, 11, pp. 2863-2880
  • Gualdi, S., Scoccimarro, E., Navarra, A., Changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming: results from a high-resolution coupled general circulation model (2008) J Clim, 21, pp. 5204-5228
  • Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project (1996) Bull Am Meteor Soc, 77, pp. 437-471
  • Kidson, J.W., Interannual variations in the southern hemisphere circulation (1988) J Clim, 1, pp. 1177-1198
  • Liebmann, B., An observed trend in central South American precipitation (2004) J Clim, 17, pp. 4357-4367
  • Madec, G., Delecluse, P., Imbard, M., Levy, C., (1998) OPA version 8. 1 ocean general circulation model reference manual, , Technical report, LODYC/IPSL Note 11
  • Mitchell, T.D., Jones, P.D., An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids (2005) Int J Climatol, 25, pp. 693-712
  • Navarra, A., Gualdi, S., Masina, S., Behera, S., Luo, J.-J., Masson, S., Guilyardi, E., Yamagata, T., Atmospheric horizontal resolution affects tropical climate variability in coupled models (2008) J Clim, 21, pp. 730-750
  • Mo, K.C., Paegle, J.N., The Pacific-South American modes and their downstream effects (2001) Int J Climatol, 21, pp. 1211-1229
  • North, G.R., Bell, T.L., Cahalan, R.F., Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions (1982) Mon Weather Rev, 110, pp. 699-706
  • Paegle, J.N., Mo, K.C., Linkages between summer rainfall variability over South America and sea surface temperature anomalies (2002) J Clim, 15, pp. 1389-1407
  • Pisciottano, G., Diaz, A., Cazes, G., Mechoso, C.R., El Niño southern oscillation impact on rainfall in Uruguay (1994) J Clim, 7, pp. 1286-1302
  • Rayner, N.A., Parker, D.E., Horton, E.B., Folland, C.K., Alexander, L.V., Rowell, D.P., Kent, E.C., Kaplan, A., Global analysis of sea surface temperature, sea ice and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century (2003) J Geophys Res, 18 (D14), p. 4407. , doi:10.1029/2002JD002670
  • Roeckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Christoph, M., Claussen, M., Dümenil, L., Esch, M., Schulzweida, U., (1996) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate: Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, p. 86. , Report no. 218, Hamburg
  • Seager, R., Naik, N., Baethgen, W., Robertson, A., Kushnir, Y., Nakamura, J., Jurburg, S., Tropical oceanic causes of interannual to multidecadal precipitation variability in Southeast South America over the past century (2010) J Clim, 23, pp. 5517-5539
  • Silva, G.A.M., Ambrizzi, T., Marengo, J.A., Observational evidences on the modulation of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes according the ENSO variability (2009) Ann Geophys, 27, pp. 645-657
  • Silvestri, G.E., El Niño signal variability in the precipitation over Southeastern South America during austral summer (2004) Geophys Res Lett 31, , doi: 10. 1029/2004GL020590
  • Silvestri, G., Vera, C., Non-stationarity impacts of the southern annular mode on southern hemisphere climate (2009) J Clim, 22, pp. 6142-6148
  • Silvestri, G., Vera, C., Evaluation of the WCRP-CMIP3 model simulations in the La Plata basin (2008) Met Appl, 15, pp. 497-502
  • Stuck, J., Guntner, A., Merz, B., ENSO impact on simulated South American hydro-climatology (2006) Adv Geosci, 6, pp. 227-336
  • Solman, S.A., Orlanski, I., Subpolar high anomaly preconditioning precipitation over South America (2009) J Atmos Sci, 67, pp. 1526-1542
  • Taschetto, A.S., Wainer, I., The impact of subtropical South Atlantic SST on South America precipitation (2008) Ann Geophys, 26, pp. 3457-3476
  • Taschetto, A.S., Ambrizzi, T., Can Indian Ocean SST anomalies influence South American rainfall (2012) Clim Dyn, 38, pp. 1615-1628. , doi:10.1007/s00832-0111-1165-3
  • Vera, C., Silvestri, G., Precipitation interannual variability in South America from the WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model dataset (2009) Clim Dyn, 32, pp. 1003-1014
  • Vera, C., Silvestri, G., Liebmann, B., Gonzalez, P., Climate change scenarios for seasonal precipitation in South America from the IPCC AR4 models (2006) Geophys Res Lett, 33, pp. L13707. , doi:10.1029/2006GL025759
  • Vera, C., Silvestri, G., Barros, V., Carril, A.F., Differences in El Niño response over the southern hemisphere (2004) J Clim, 17, pp. 1741-1753
  • Wilks, D.S., (1995) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, p. 467. , London: Academic Press
  • Wu, R., Kirtman, B.P., Impact of the Indian Ocean on the Indian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship (2004) J Clim, 17, pp. 3037-3054
  • Xie, P., Arkin, P.A., Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs (1997) Bull Am Meteor Soc, 78, pp. 2539-2558
  • Yulaeva, E., Wallace, J.M., The signature of ENSO in global temperature and precipitation fields derived from the microwave sounding unit (1994) J Clim, 7, pp. 1719-1736
  • Zamboni, L., Kucharski, F., Mechoso, C.R., Seasonal variations of the links between the interannual variability of South America and the South Pacific (2012) Clim Dyn, 38 (9), pp. 2115-2129. , doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1116-zn
  • Zamboni, L., Mechoso, C.R., Kucharski, F., Relationships between upper-level circulation over South America and rainfall over Southeastern South America: a physical base for seasonal predictions (2010) J Clim, 23, pp. 3300-3315
  • Zhou, J., Lau, K.M., Principal modes of interannual and decadal variability of summer rainfall over South America (2001) Int J Climatol, 21, pp. 1623-1644
  • Zhou, J., Lau, K.M., Intercomparison of model simulations of the impact of 1997/98 El Niño on South American summer monsoon (2002) Meteorologica, 27, pp. 99-116

Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Cherchi, A., Carril, A.F., Menéndez, C.G. & Zamboni, L. (2014) . La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: Role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments. Climate Dynamics, 42(1-2), 219-236.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1768-y
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Cherchi, A., Carril, A.F., Menéndez, C.G., Zamboni, L. "La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: Role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments" . Climate Dynamics 42, no. 1-2 (2014) : 219-236.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1768-y
---------- MLA ----------
Cherchi, A., Carril, A.F., Menéndez, C.G., Zamboni, L. "La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: Role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments" . Climate Dynamics, vol. 42, no. 1-2, 2014, pp. 219-236.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1768-y
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Cherchi, A., Carril, A.F., Menéndez, C.G., Zamboni, L. La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: Role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments. Clim. Dyn. 2014;42(1-2):219-236.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1768-y