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Coppola, E.; Sobolowski, S.; Pichelli, E.; Raffaele, F.; Ahrens, B.; Anders, I.; Ban, N.; Bastin, S.; Belda, M.; Belusic, D.; Caldas-Alvarez, A.; Cardoso, R.M.; Davolio, S.; Dobler, A.; Fernandez, J.; Fita, L.; Fumiere, Q.; Giorgi, F. (...) Warrach-Sagi, K. "A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean" (2018) Climate Dynamics
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Abstract:

A recently launched project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) is presented. This initiative aims to build first-of-its-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. In this manuscript the rationale, scientific aims and approaches are presented along with some preliminary results from the testing phase of the project. Three test cases were selected in order to obtain a first look at the ensemble performance. The test cases covered a summertime extreme precipitation event over Austria, a fall Foehn event over the Swiss Alps and an intensively documented fall event along the Mediterranean coast. The test cases were run in both “weather-like” (WL, initialized just before the event in question) and “climate” (CM, initialized 1 month before the event) modes. Ensembles of 18–21 members, representing six different modeling systems with different physics and modelling chain options, was generated for the test cases (27 modeling teams have committed to perform the longer climate simulations). Results indicate that, when run in WL mode, the ensemble captures all three events quite well with ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.67, 0.82 and 0.91. They suggest that the more the event is driven by large-scale conditions, the closer the agreement between the ensemble members. Even in climate mode the large-scale driven events over the Swiss Alps and the Mediterranean coasts are still captured (ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.90 and 0.62, respectively), but the inter-model spread increases as expected. In the case over Mediterranean the effects of local-scale interactions between flow and orography and land–ocean contrasts are readily apparent. However, there is a much larger, though not surprising, increase in the spread for the Austrian event, which was weakly forced by the large-scale flow. Though the ensemble correlation skill score is still quite high (0.80). The preliminary results illustrate both the promise and the challenges that convection permitting modeling faces and make a strong argument for an ensemble-based approach to investigating high impact convective processes. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.

Registro:

Documento: Artículo
Título:A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean
Autor:Coppola, E.; Sobolowski, S.; Pichelli, E.; Raffaele, F.; Ahrens, B.; Anders, I.; Ban, N.; Bastin, S.; Belda, M.; Belusic, D.; Caldas-Alvarez, A.; Cardoso, R.M.; Davolio, S.; Dobler, A.; Fernandez, J.; Fita, L.; Fumiere, Q.; Giorgi, F.; Goergen, K.; Güttler, I.; Halenka, T.; Heinzeller, D.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Jacob, D.; Kartsios, S.; Katragkou, E.; Kendon, E.; Khodayar, S.; Kunstmann, H.; Knist, S.; Lavín-Gullón, A.; Lind, P.; Lorenz, T.; Maraun, D.; Marelle, L.; van Meijgaard, E.; Milovac, J.; Myhre, G.; Panitz, H.-J.; Piazza, M.; Raffa, M.; Raub, T.; Rockel, B.; Schär, C.; Sieck, K.; Soares, P.M.M.; Somot, S.; Srnec, L.; Stocchi, P.; Tölle, M.H.; Truhetz, H.; Vautard, R.; de Vries, H.; Warrach-Sagi, K.
Filiación:International Centre for Theoretical Physics (International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)), Trieste, Italy
Uni Research, The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt a.M. Frankfurt/Main, Frankfurt, Germany
ZAMG (Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics), Vienna, Austria
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), LATMOS, UVSQ, UPMC, CNRS, Guyancourt, France
Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Troposphere Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy
The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Meteorology Group, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA, CNRS UMI-IFAECI, Buenos Aires, Argentina
CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Institute of Bio-and Geosciences (Agrosphere, IBG-3), Research Centre Jülich, Jülich, Germany
Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich, Germany
Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), Zagreb, Croatia
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany
Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
Climate Service Center (CSC) Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Institute of Geography, Augsburg University, Augsburg, Germany
Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Meteorology Group, Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), CSIC-Univ. Cantabria, Santander, Spain
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, Graz, 8010, Austria
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands
Institute of Physics and Meteorology (IPM), University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC Foundation), Capua, Italy
Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany
Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Senckenbergstr. 1, Giessen, 35390, Germany
Palabras clave:Climate applications; Convection-permitting; Ensemble models
Año:2018
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8
Título revista:Climate Dynamics
Título revista abreviado:Clim. Dyn.
ISSN:09307575
Registro:https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09307575_v_n_p_Coppola

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Citas:

---------- APA ----------
Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Pichelli, E., Raffaele, F., Ahrens, B., Anders, I., Ban, N.,..., Warrach-Sagi, K. (2018) . A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean. Climate Dynamics.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8
---------- CHICAGO ----------
Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Pichelli, E., Raffaele, F., Ahrens, B., Anders, I., et al. "A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean" . Climate Dynamics (2018).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8
---------- MLA ----------
Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Pichelli, E., Raffaele, F., Ahrens, B., Anders, I., et al. "A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean" . Climate Dynamics, 2018.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8
---------- VANCOUVER ----------
Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Pichelli, E., Raffaele, F., Ahrens, B., Anders, I., et al. A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean. Clim. Dyn. 2018.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8